FTPH

Abstract

Major developments for the autonomous forecast model HS4Cast

G.Schaffar, S.Hertl

If you want a copy of the paper presented at the 1996 SIRWEC conference in Birmingham, please let me know)

The forecast model HS4Cast is able to produce road temperature forecasts using local measurements only. No additional inputs - for example involving large-scale data - are needed. That is why HS4Cast can also be used for locations where only local data are available. The model uses all major influences on the road temperature and therefore also produces forecasts of other relevant parameters like air temperature or irradiation.

The recent developments for HS4Cast were directed to further improve the quality of air temperature and radiation forecasts. This has been accomplished by introducing an additional forecast engine using fuzzy logic and data bases. The paper will present these developments briefly.

Another area of interest for the user of such road weather forecast systems is the possibility to compare the quality of the various models with standardised means. Until now there is no satisfying way to compare the results of different forecast systems. Yet we will try to compare the forecast quality of different models presented in recent publications.

The use of fuzzy logic in HS4Cast allows a smooth degradation of forecast quality in the case of faltering sensors. This helps prevent a complete standstill of forecast operation; the forecasting can be carried on albeit with reduced accuracy.

See the Article.  
 

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